How Do Pandemics End?

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, huddled up in our houses and cautious to the level of obsession arises the question- when and how will this end? To answer that question, we must first take a look at how other pandemics have ended.

A pandemic normally ends in one of two ways. Either a vaccine is developed to prevent infection by the pathogen, or around one-third of the population gets infected by the pathogen, and the survivors become immune to the disease. Essentially, a pandemic ends when we have created herd immunity, which protects people with compromised immune systems from infection.

The infamous plague hit quite a few times throughout history when people did not have an understanding of contagion. These plagues ended either when there was nobody left for the virus to infect or as the fruit of rudimentary quarantine and isolation measures.

Until smallpox, epidemics ended in a similar way- people would stay away from the sick and the ones strong enough to survive would be left immune. However, a British doctor named Edward Jenner discovered that milkmaids infected with a milder virus called cowpox seemed immune to smallpox. And thus came forth the smallpox vaccine.

Ever since pandemics and epidemics have either been contained and prevented or a vaccine has been created and administered to people who can be infected.

And that brings us back to the question- how will this pandemic end?

Well, one cannot be sure. Projections about how COVID-19 will play out are speculative, but the end game will most likely involve a mix of everything that checked past pandemics: Continued social-control measures to buy time, new antiviral medications to ease symptoms, and a vaccine. The exact formula-how long control measures such as social distancing must stay in place, for instance- depends in large part on how strictly people obey restrictions and how effectively governments respond.

Currently, the most effective way of controlling the pandemic and buying time for creating treatments is by making sure that the virus cannot spread. Even in a worst-case scenario where a vaccine or treatment cannot be found, making sure that the patients cannot infect others will put an end to this pandemic.

Written by: Krithika Kannan